Fig. 2

Effect of transmission intensity and heterogeneity in biting on efficacy estimates. A LM-detectable recurrence-free efficacy estimated from simulated clinical trials is shown at different EIR and levels of heterogeneity in biting. Each point represents the median of 200 simulations, and each bar is the interquartile range. The colour represents the degree of heterogeneity in individual-level exposure to biting, corresponding to the distributions in B–E. Darker colours indicate greater heterogeneity in individual-level exposure to biting, and the dotted line is the clearance probability. The distributions of biting propensities are shown from representative simulated trials where the variance in the logged biting propensity was equal to (B) zero, (C) one, (D) two, or (E) three