Fig. 3

Recurrence-free survival curves for the effect of transmission intensity and heterogeneity in biting. Recurrence-free survival from simulated clinical trials as a function of follow-up time is shown at different EIR and levels of heterogeneity in biting (σ²). Each line is in the median of 200 simulations, and each shaded region is the interquartile range. Solid lines correspond to the treatment arm, and dashed lines correspond to the placebo arm. The colour of each survival curve corresponds to the infection endpoint used, with orange corresponding to PCR-detectable recurrent infections, red corresponding to LM-detectable recurrent infections, and maroon corresponding to clinical recurrent infections