Fig. 4

Association between the LLIN campaign and low birthweight (LBW) incidence estimated from interrupted time series analyses (ITSA). A shows the observed and unobserved counterfactual number of LBW deliveries per month summed across all health facilities. The red vertical line marks the timepoint when LLINs were distributed, and green vertical lines indicate the three- and six-month cut-off points after LLIN distribution. The grey shaded region represents the 95% confidence intervals estimated from ITSA models using a block-bootstrapping procedure accounting for clustered observations at the health facility-level. B shows the effect estimates produced by dividing the sum of the observed number of LBW deliveries by the unobserved (“expected”) counterfactual number of LBW deliveries estimated from ITSA models. Overall estimates and those stratified by three-month post-LLIN intervals are presented as incidence rate ratios (IRRs)