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Table 3 Regression coefficients and 95% CrI from Bayesian models of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax cases reported by month and regency, North Sumatera, Indonesia, 2019–2020

From: Spatial analysis to evaluate risk of malaria in Northern Sumatera, Indonesia

Covariates Plasmodium falciparum Plasmodium vivax
Coefficient (95% CrI) RR (95% CrI) Coefficient (95% CrI) RR (95% CrI)
Intercept* − 5.79 (− 7.82, − 3.70)   − 6.38 (− 8.14, − 4.45)  
Sex (ref: female) − 0.011 (− 0.204, 0.180) 0.989 (0.816, 1.197) − 0.004 (− 0.109, 0.100) 0.996 (0.897, 1.105)
Altitude (meters) − 0.005 (− 0.012, 0.000) 0.995 (0.988, 1.000) − 0.008 (− 0.013, − 0.002) 0.992 (0.987, 0.998)
Relative humidity (%) 0.114 (0.050, 0.183) 1.121 (1.051, 1.201) 0.017 (− 0.005, 0.039) 1.017 (0.995, 1.040)
Rainfall (cm) − 0.002 (− 0.015, 0.011) 0.998 (0.985, 1.011) 0.002 (− 0.005, 0.008) 1.002 (0.995, 1.008)
Maximum temperature (℃) 0.190 (0.086, 0.309) 1.210 (1.090, 1.362) 0.010 (− 0.024, 0.042) 1.010 (0.977, 1.043)
Minimum temperature (℃) − 0.022 (− 0.102, 0.060) 0.978 (0.903, 1.062) − 0.182 (− 0.222, − 0.143) 0.833 (0.801, 0.867)
Unstructured random effect 0.0617 (0.0211, 0.1353)   0.05 (0.0187, 0.1037)  
  1. *Co-efficient; CrI: credible interval; DIC: deviation information criteria; RR: relative risk
  2. Significant at p < 0.05