Table 2 The impact of PMD of LLINs on the number of OPD reported malaria cases as a percentage of all OPD cases in Ghana

National estimate

 Observed

  2015

32.12 [31.16, 33.07]

36.02 [34.89, 37.16]

35.56 [34.40, 36.71]

35.93 [34.81, 37.05]

  2016

33.72 [32.74, 34.70]

37.57 [36.46, 38.68]

37.04 [35.88, 38.19]

37.47 [36.33, 38.62]

  2017

41.43 [40.44, 42.43]

44.77 [43.57, 45.97]

44.00 [42.84, 45.16]

45.33 [44.07, 46.58]

  2018

44.18 [43.21, 45.15]

46.85 [45.74, 47.95]

45.89 [44.77, 47.01]

46.86 [45.74, 47.99]

  2019

46.18 [45.25, 47.10]

48.24 [47.06, 49.43]

47.44 [46.29, 48.58]

48.05 [46.90, 49.20]

  Expected (2019)

49.94 [47.68, 52.21]

52.76 [50.21, 55.31]

51.54 [49.00, 54.07]

53.23 [50.50, 55.95]

  Impact estimate (2019)

− 3.76 [− 4.69, − 2.84]***

− 4.52 [− 5.70, − 3.34]***

− 4.10 [− 5.25, − 2.95]***

− 5.18 [− 6.33, − 4.02]***

National

 Regional

  Ahafo

− 5.25 [− 15.73, 5.22]

− 7.65 [− 19.32, 4.03]

− 7.44 [− 18.98, 4.10]

− 5.33 [− 18.21, 7.54]

  Ashanti

5.49 [2.00, 8.99]**

3.52 [− 0.38, 7.41]

3.87 [− 0.07, 7.80]

3.34 [− 0.70, 7.39]

  Bono

− 4.83 [− 8.34, − 1.33]**

− 6.93 [− 11.00, − 2.85]**

− 5.54 [− 9.45, − 1.62]**

− 5.56 [− 9.72, − 1.41]**

  Bono east

− 4.47 [− 8.37, − 0.58]*

− 2.89 [− 7.15, 1.38]

− 5.04 [− 9.28, − 0.79] *

− 4.22 [− 8.86, 0.41]

  Central

− 3.69 [− 6.29, − 1.08]**

− 7.36 [− 10.26, − 4.46]***

− 6.14 [− 9.21, − 3.06]***

− 4.34 [− 7.66, − 1.03]*

  Eastern

3.70 [1.42, 5.98]**

3.42 [0.98, 5.86]**

3.05 [0.61, 5.49]*

3.56 [1.12, 6.01]**

  Greater accra

− 0.67 [− 2.73, 1.39]

− 3.03 [− 5.23, − 0.82]**

− 0.76 [− 2.75, 1.23]

− 1.67 [− 4.04, 0.70]

  North-East

7.09 [− 2.93, 17.12]

7.88 [− 1.53, 17.28]

3.16 [− 6.33, 12.65]

7.20 [− 2.26, 16.65]

  Northern

− 27.62 [− 31.93, − 23.31]***

− 33.54 [− 38.70, − 28.37]***

− 37.22 [− 42.02, − 32.41]***

− 37.30 [− 42.60, − 32.01]***

  Oti

− 18.21 [− 23.30, − 13.11]***

− 21.47 [− 25.95, − 16.99]***

− 20.95 [− 26.22, − 15.68]***

− 23.04 [− 27.21, − 18.87]***

  Savannah

− 26.15 [− 31.76, − 20.53]***

− 31.80 [− 38.41, − 25.20]***

− 30.15 [− 36.41, − 23.89]***

− 28.75 [− 35.03, − 22.48]***

  Upper East

− 9.11 [− 11.28, − 6.94]***

− 7.03 [− 9.53, − 4.53]***

− 7.88 [− 9.87, − 5.88]***

− 8.78 [− 11.34, − 6.21]***

  Upper West

6.69 [4.49, 8.89]***

1.97 [− 0.60, 4.54]

3.93 [1.12, 6.75]**

5.50 [3.04, 7.95]***

  Volta

− 6.33 [− 9.39, − 3.27]***

− 6.04 [− 9.73, − 2.34]**

− 2.71 [− 6.49, 1.07]

− 5.60 [− 9.31, − 1.89]**

  Western

− 6.89 [− 10.71, − 3.06]***

− 8.59 [− 12.64, − 4.54]***

− 6.58 [− 10.75, − 2.40]**

− 8.59 [− 12.50, − 4.69]***

  Western north

1.82 [− 1.99, 5.64]

− 4.00 [− 7.67, − 0.34]*

− 9.36 [− 13.36, − 5.35]***

− 5.00 [− 8.90, − 1.10]*

Facility type

 Hospital

− 0.64 [− 1.54, 0.25]

− 2.63 [− 4.05, − 1.21]***

− 1.66 [− 3.10, − 0.21]*

− 1.92 [− 3.35, − 0.48]**

 Polyclinic

− 1.82 [− 7.69, 4.05]

− 2.29 [− 10.02, 5.43]

− 1.07 [− 9.09, 6.95]

− 2.95 [− 10.86, 4.96]

 Medical centre

− 2.70 [− 6.65, 1.26]

− 7.69 [− 12.64, − 2.74]**

− 4.91 [− 10.27, 0.44]

− 4.85 [− 9.50, − 0.20]*

 Health centre

0.95 [− 0.40, 2.29]

− 1.90 [− 3.77, − 0.02]*

− 1.68 [− 3.52, 0.16]

− 3.20 [− 5.08, − 1.33]**

 Maternity home

4.46 [0.42, 8.50] *

− 4.08 [− 9.18, 1.02]

− 3.44 [− 8.25, 1.37]

− 1.81 [− 7.54, 3.91]

 Clinic

0.05 [− 2.05, 2.16]

0.00 [− 2.83, 2.83]

0.00 [− 2.94, 2.94]

0.00 [− 2.96, 2.96]

 CHPS

0.00 [− 0.94, 0.94]

0.00 [− 1.25, 1.25]

0.00 [− 1.28, 1.28]

− 0.01 [− 1.31, 1.30]