Table 5 Percent change in indicators in 2025 and 2030 relative to the BAU 2020 scenario in 310 SMC-eligible areas
From: Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria
Scenario | U5 incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 mortality percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU in 2020 (%) | U5 mortality percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | − 4.4 (− 3.8, − 5.3) | − 12.7 (− 7.1, − 18.5) | 0.5 (1.1, − 0.2) | − 6.5 (1.9, − 12.7) |
3 | − 35.7 (− 34.8, − 36.3) | − 54.3 (− 51.7, − 57.7) | − 34.7 (− 34.1, − 35.5) | − 61.2 (− 58.3, − 63.4) |
4 | − 42.4 (− 42.2, − 42.7) | − 59 (− 55.6, − 63.2) | − 43.4 (− 42.9, − 43.7) | − 68.9 (− 67.1, − 70.8) |