El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans

Table 7 Average values of the SST and climate indices for the different malaria epidemic index categories (0–1–2) for Amhara and the associated Gerrity Skill Score

Climate indices	No epidemic (0)	Localized epidemic (1)	Widespread epidemic (2)	Gerrity skill Score
Temperature variables (^oC)
JAS NINO 3.4	0.094	− 0.159	0.085	0.079
MAM NINO 3.4	0.041	− 0.231	0.156	0.041
JAS IOD	− 0.165	0.025	0.031	− 0.012
JAS Trop Atlantic	− 0.111	0.231	0.160	0.187
JAS Amhara Tmax	24.6	24.5	24.2	0.287^a
JAS Amhara Tmin	13	13.1	13.2	0.272
Rainfall variable (mm)
JAS Amhara rainfall	689	767	724	0.249

^aNote that the Gerrity Skill score for JAS Amhara Tmax is based on a negative correlation (i.e., cooler Tmax tend to be correlated with more widespread malaria epidemics). All other Gerrity scores shown are based on a positive correlation framework

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