Bayesian belief network modelling approach for predicting and ranking risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years in refugee settlements in Uganda

Semakula, Henry Musoke; Liang, Song; Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Mugagga, Frank; Nseka, Denis; Wasswa, Hannington; Mwendwa, Patrick; Kayima, Patrick; Achuu, Simon Peter; Nakato, Jovia

doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04735-8

Table 2 Predicted changes in beliefs of states when a positive state finding in the malaria rapid test results node was made 100%

From: Bayesian belief network modelling approach for predicting and ranking risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years in refugee settlements in Uganda

Nodes and states	Ranking	Initial state-beliefs^a	New state-beliefs^b	Changes in beliefs^c	% point change
Malaria test results
Negative		0.51917
Positive		0.48083	100%
Age of refugee child	1
Below 12 months		0.22222	0.21116	− 0.01106	− 1.11
13–24 months		0.18148	0.18231	0.00083	0.08^d
25–36 months		0.16428	0.17481	0.00947	0.95^d
37–48 months		0.23148	0.23406	0.00258	0.26^d
49– 60 months		0.20000	0.20818	0.00818	0.82^d
Main roof material	2
Iron sheets		0.26922	0.26216	− 0.00706	− 0.71
Tarpaulin		0.20585	0.19953	− 0.00632	− 0.63
Thatch/palm leaf		0.52493	0.53831	0.01338	1.34^d
Main wall material	3
Bricks with cement		0.05297	0.05081	− 0.00216	− 0.22
Bricks with mud		0.54186	0.52887	− 0.01299	− 1.30
Cardboard walls		0.01547	0.01610	0.00063	0.06^d
Plastered walls		0.00776	0.008043	0.00028	0.03^d
Poles with mud		0.36904	0.37866	0.00962	0.96^d
Thatch walls		0.01494	0.01552	0.00058	0.06^d
Type of toilet facility	4
No toilet facility		0.03094	0.03216	0.00122	0.12^d
Open pit latrine		0.39848	0.39005	− 0.00843	− 0.84
Pit latrine with slab		0.48398	0.48743	0.00345	0.34^d
Ventilated improved pit latrine (VIP)		0.08659	0.09035	0.00376	0.38^d
Type of cooking fuel	5
Charcoal		0.19317	0.19992	0.00675	0.67^d
Fire wood		0.80683	0.80008	− 0.00675	− 0.68
Time to get to water source	6
0 min		0.17186	0.17270	0.00084	0.08^d
1–10 min		0.07289	0.07367	0.00078	0.08^d
11–20 min		0.27082	0.27059	− 0.00023	− 0.02
21–30 min		0.09674	0.09233	− 0.00441	− 0.44
Above 30 min		0.39133	0.38708	− 0.00425	− 0.43
Whether children sleep under ITNs	7
All children		0.56862	0.56157	− 0.00705	− 0.71
No		0.23421	0.23547	0.00126	0.13^d
Some children		0.19716	0.20296	0.00580	0.58^d
Source of drinking water	8
Boreholes		0.42631	0.42332	− 0.00299	− 0.30
Open water sources		0.04747	0.04865	0.00118	0.12^d
Piped water on premise		0.01337	0.01375	0.00038	0.04^d
Public taps		0.42694	0.42462	− 0.00232	− 0.23
Tanker trucks		0.08966	0.08592	− 0.00374	− 0.37
Main floor material	9
Cement floor		0.08291	0.08584	0.00293	0.29^d
Dung floor		0.18038	0.18376	0.00338	0.34^d
Earth floor		0.73671	0.73040	− 0.00631	− 0.63
Household wealth status	10
Poor		0.78005	0.78593	0.00588	0.59^d
Rich		0.21995	0.21407	− 0.00588	− 0.59

^aRepresents the initial state belief probabilities for each malaria risk factor in the BBN model
^bReflects new state belief probabilities for the malaria risk factors when a positive state belief finding in the output node of the BBN model was made 100%
^cIndicates the predicted relative changes in probabilities from the initial to new state-beliefs
^dRepresents the actual malaria risk factors, and their positive contribution to malaria infections

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