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Table 1 Summary of out-of-sample accuracy: root mean square error (RMSE): Mean absolute error (MAR) and coverage probability (CV) obtained for the 12-month validation set data averaged to all districts

From: Space-time modelling of monthly malaria incidence for seasonal associated drivers and early epidemic detection in Southern Ethiopia

Valid

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RMSE

0.046

0.022

0.058

0.023

0.013

0.017

0.018

0.039

0.019

0.015

0.015

0.016

MAE

0.012

0.009

0.012

0.009

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.011

0.008

0.008

0.009

0.009

CVP

78.174

75.919

69.154

65.396

74.416

75.919

66.899

72.161

70.658

71.409

69.154

67.651

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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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