Table 2 Mixed effect estimates of the incidence rate ratio of the number of cases of malaria using Poisson random intercept and random slope of the COVID-19 panel

Fixed part

 Age groups

  < 1 year old

Reference

n/a

n/a

  1–4 years

3.96

 < 0.0001

(3.95, 3.97)

  5–14 years old

4.98

 < 0.0001

(4.97, 4.99)

  ≥ 15 years old

6.37

 < 0.0001

(6.35, 6.38)

 Province

  Southern#

Reference

n/a

n/a

  Central

11.4

 < 0.0001

(6.61, 19.7)

  Copperbelt

30.9

 < 0.0001

(17.4, 54.4)

  Eastern

15.4

 < 0.0001

(8.77, 27.0)

  Luapula

23.5

 < 0.0001

(13.2, 41.6)

  Lusaka

4.06

 < 0.0001

(2.13, 7.73)

  Muchinga

19.2

 < 0.0001

(10.3, 35.5)

  Northern

18.9

 < 0.0001

(10.9, 32.8)

  Northwestern

25.0

 < 0.0001

(14.2, 43.8)

  Western

12.7

 < 0.0001

(7.84, 20.4)

Random part

 COVID-19*

  2018 to Feb2020 (not COVID-19)

Reference

n/a

n/a

  March2020 to Jan2022 (yes COVID-19)

1.32

 < 0.0001

(1.18, 1.48)

  Standard deviation COVID-19

0.618

(0.542, 0.703)

  Standard deviation (Intercept)

0.937

(0.806, 1.090)

  Correlation (COVID-19, Intercept)

−0.689